What comes after the end of the Russian war in Ukraine?
Dr. Ibrahim Habib
Professor of Strategic and Regional Studies
Those who follow the course of the Russian war in Ukraine today realize the failure of the Russian forces in resolving the battle, and this is due to the following reasons:
1- The transformation of the war from a military confrontation between two armies to a war of cities. In the first, the Russian army excels quickly due to its great potential, and this is with what the Ukrainians realized, Therefore, the army withdrew from open camps into cities and joined the civilian population and the war became a street war, which makes it difficult for Russian forces to fight.
2- Continuous supply of NATO forces to the Ukrainian army and government militarily, economically and politically.
3- The state of exhaustion suffered by the Russian army, which was evident through the conduct of the battles, despite the classification of the Russian army as the second most powerful army in the world.
3- The high morale of the Ukrainian people and their motivation to fight in light of the great Western moral charge for them.
4- The weakness of Russian military equipment, which seems unable to possess sufficient fortifications, and its limited field maneuvering and thus ease of targeting, which raised the percentage of Russian losses in this war.
Therefore, the Russian army resorted to besieging cities and tightening the noose on them by cutting off military, food and energy supplies with slow movement without entering into major street fighting for two reasons:
1- Pushing Ukrainian forces to surrender, especially in Kiev.
2- Reduce human losses as much as possible on both sides.
Continue in the article What comes after the end of the Russian war in Ukraine?
In light of this reality, the inability of Russia to retreat from this war without achieving victory, and the West’s keenness to drain Russia and destroy its economy. Putin will have three scenarios to end:
First scenario:
The siege of the main cities will continue until receipt, no matter how long it takes
This scenario is unlikely given its high risk that Russia has entered a war of attrition that could topple it internally and externally.
Second scenario:
Intensifying air, missile and artillery targeting on cities to force them to surrender
It is a possible scenario that the Russian army will start in the next few days
But the prospects for its success depend on the extent to which the Ukrainian resistance will survive without reaching the stage of surrender.
Third scenario:
The use of brute force and the crushing of some Ukrainian civilian and military gatherings with the great human and material losses that this will entail with the possibility of Putin using limited nuclear weapons.
It is a very likely scenario if Ukraine does not surrender and agree to Russian conditions.
And to put the West in front of Russian pressure
Then the fighting in Ukraine will subside, It will ignite in Europe when Putin puts the West on his new terms.
1- Lifting economic sanctions and acknowledging new variables
Because he will not tolerate the continued economic pressure and his need to rebuild Ukraine.
2- Withdrawal of Eastern Bloc countries from NATO
If he refuses, Putin will resort to striking Poland with nuclear weapons to deter everyone from accepting his terms or entering into a nuclear war that ends both sides.
