Results of the Palestinian Legislative Elections 2021

Al Sharq Center for Research and Culture conducts opinion polls on various topics, To define public opinion, researchers, politicians and stakeholders, The attitudes of the respondents towards different issues.

The East Center for Research and Culture is also keen on impartiality and complete objectivity in all its surveys. Therefore, no name or address is asked, No personal information is collected about the people surveyed. With the aim of giving the respondent the greatest degree of personal security to reach objective and abstract answers.

This poll reviews the options of voters for electoral lists competing to run in the third Palestinian legislative elections scheduled for the twenty-second of next May.

The survey was carried out electronically, It was voted on by 2,490 Palestinians in the West Bank, Gaza Strip and Jerusalem. The poll was divided into two axes:

The first axis: • address basic information for voters; such as gender, age, and the province

In terms of gender, 1,922 males voted for the poll (77%). and 568 females (22%), This reflects the extent to which both sexes have an interest in such political topics.

In terms of age: The following table showed the age groups that voted for the poll:

This shows the turnout of young people clearly on the subject of elections. The largest percentage (57%) is among young people who did not have the opportunity to participate in any previous legislative elections, as they were younger than the voting age of 18 years during the second legislative elections in 2006.

In terms of governorate: Social media groups have been used to reach as many Palestinians as possible in the West Bank, Gaza and Jerusalem. A funded announcement was also sent to reach the cities of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, including Jerusalem, and on the other hand, the poll link was sent within a call to vote to a variety of factional, professional and regional figures to participate in the vote. The regional distribution of the poll was as follows:

The table indicates that the largest participation rate was from the five governorates of the Gaza Strip. which accounted for 1703 votes (68.4%), While the number of voters from the West Bank reached 704 votes, or 28.2%. Jerusalem received 83 votes, or 3.3%.

The high participation rate from the Gaza Strip is due to the ability of the East Center for Research and Culture to reach WhatsApp groups for a number of forces and institutions with diverse orientations and some groups of university students in the Gaza Strip. While the poll in the West Bank and Jerusalem relied on funded advertising and some figures directly targeted by different forces and societal groups. The East Center does not consider this distribution to be representative of the turnout of the regions to participate in the elections. They are technical conditions.

The second axis: Address the names of the lists competing to run for elections.

The poll included thirty electoral lists, Its results were as follows:

The result of the vote showed the lead of Hamas’ “Jerusalem is Our Time” list with 620 votes (24.9%). Followed by the “Enough is enough” movement list headed by Dr. Ziad Amr, It is an independent list that includes some of those close to Fatah, It received 547 votes (21.9%). It is followed by the Popular Front’s “People’s Pulse” list, which received 542 votes (21.7%). It was followed by the Fatah (Storm) list with 258 votes (10.3%). Then the list of “Palestine for All”, headed by businessman and former minister Mufid Al-Hasayneh, received 195 votes (7.8%). Finally, the list of the “Future List” of the reformist movement headed by Mohammed Dahlan, The list is headed by Samir Al-Mashharawi, It received 140 votes (5.6%). The rest of the lists received a few votes and low percentages.

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These data lead us to the following analysis:

• These percentages do not reflect the real size of the lists, As much as they reflect how engaged the audience of these lists is with this survey.

• Some lists resort to concealing the fact of their size, Big or small, For competitive and tactical considerations, It therefore approaches polls based on those considerations.

• The list of “Jerusalem is our date” received 24.9%, and it was the most fortunate according to the poll. But it doesn’t put it in a comfortable position in the legislature, Especially since it may not have the backings of candidates from other lists.

• In an unexpected surprise on the Palestinian street, The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine’s “People’s Pulse” list received 21.9%. This may be due to the PFLP’s interaction with the reconnaissance more than other forces.

• The same surprise applies to the list of Ziad Amr (21.9%) and Mufid al-Hasayneh (7.8%). They are proportions that do not necessarily reflect their size in reality, Despite the desire of a segment of the Palestinian street to make a change, and the tendency towards calls for internal reform. It seems that such lists will see some presence in the next legislature.

• Fatah was able to win a larger percentage of its main list (the storm) through the voters of its sub-lists. Like the list of Mashharawi and Barghouti, totaling about 16.8%, It can reap a larger number through its members and close associates distributed on some independent lists such as the lists of Al-Hasayneh, Amr and Fayyad. It is expected to exceed 21%.

• The poll reflects the general popular mood that wants to bring about a tangible change in domestic politics. Hence, some lists of independents and calls for reform won reasonable quotas according to the vote. The proportions of other independents have been minimal. The proportions of the lists also reflected a dispersion of voters, appeared by some lists getting 1% or less, All of them seem to have eaten the shares of the main factions of national action.

• These results are pre-election campaigns that may somehow affect the results.

And yet, The East Center for Research and Culture puts this poll in the hands of those interested in the Palestinian legislative elections inside Palestine, the Arab region and the international arena, He hopes that he has come as close to the truth as possible by pursuing a policy of neutrality, and scientific methodology. PCHR believes that the success of the Palestinian elections is an appropriate entry point for Palestinian national reconciliation and the restoration of political cohesion. Building a wall in the face of regional normalization projects with the Zionist occupation state.