Will the Russian-Ukrainian war turn into a war of attrition
Dr. Ibrahim Habib
Professor of Strategic and Regional Studies
There are those who believe that America has succeeded in dragging Russia into a war of attrition in Ukraine and that it will provide the latter with money, weapons and international support to drain and exhaust Russian forces.
On the other hand, America tightens its harsh economic sanctions on Moscow to bring it to its knees and incite the Russian people, especially the army leaders, and the wealthy against President Putin to remove him from power
It is an American attempt to mix between the fourth and fifth generation of wars
Will America succeed?
I think it’s not that simple.
America is therefore unlikely to succeed in its plan to turn the war in Ukraine into a war of attrition for Russia for several reasons. She:-
1- Putin is not stupid enough to enter this war knowing the magnitude of the challenges facing him. He is a veteran intelligence man who has the renaissance of modern Russia and therefore knows what he is doing.
2- The Russian forces are still using rational force in their war against the Ukrainian army so as to minimize as much as possible the human losses of the Ukrainian people because they want Ukraine land and people and therefore do not want to create a permanent state of hostility between the Russian and Ukrainian peoples, who are basically one people, people of one religion and one sect.
3- Putin understands that the war of attrition in Ukraine It could lead to internal conflicts in Russia that would affect him and remove him from power; so two days into the war he asked the chief of the Strategic Staff to put the nuclear force in a state of readiness to be used to deter the West from intervening in the war.
4- America does not want to recognize the global changes in the balance of power and is proud of its descent from its throne, which it has been on for more than thirty years. Therefore, it will continue to fight and maneuver so that the world does not feel its aging and aging, which may lead to it committing political and military mistakes against Russia with disastrous consequences for it.
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Accordingly, we expect the following:-
If Ukraine does not surrender and does not accept Russian demands, the US war of attrition of Russian forces continues.
We will witness a major shift in the operations of the Russian army within days
The Russian military is expected to use brute force and in some areas overwhelming force to win the battle.
The Russian military is expected to use unconventional tactical weapons to eliminate European mercenaries and Ukrainian nationalists, as U.S. forces did during their occupation of Afghanistan in 2001, as well as to resolve battles at Baghdad airport during their occupation of Iraq in 2003.
For all this, we believe that the course of the war will change after mid-March.
