Where are the Palestinian elections going?

 

D. Essam Muhammad Ali Adwan

 

As a result of the meeting of the Secretaries-General of the Palestinian factions in September 2020, and the ensuing meetings, In January 2021, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas issued a decree to hold legislative elections on the twenty-second of next month. This was followed by presidential elections and then the Palestinian National Council. The arrangements and preparations for the elections are well advanced in preparing for that day. And as we get closer and closer.

 

The Palestinian, Israeli, Arab and international intelligence services began to monitor the trends of the Palestinian street. It sets its expectations in the light of the political, programmatic and factional division reflected in the progress of thirty-five electoral lists. The thirst of the Palestinian street for these elections, which have been interrupted for fifteen years, It is counting on it to solve many of the problems of the Palestinian reality.

 

Intelligence polls suggest that Hamas will win more seats than any other faction. And here began to talk about the importance, Rather, the elections should be postponed, And the search for a suitable way out at the Palestinian, Arab and international levels, prevents Hamas from exploiting the delay against its political opponents, The postponement effort is enveloped in manifestations of patriotism and strategic visions.

We are looking here for the options available to the Palestinian elections, Especially legislative, These are three options or scenarios,

 

First option: Holding elections.

 

Option Two: Postponement of elections without factional consensus.

 

Option Three: Postponing the elections by factional consensus.

 

The option of holding elections still exists from several angles and justifications:

 

• The president of the authority feared that his popular image would be shaken if he did not respect the decrees he issued.

 

• Fear (Palestinian, Israeli and international) that the postponement of the elections will negatively affect security in the West Bank, Hamas and its public, which is looking for change in the West Bank, are pushed against the wall.

 

• The Fatah-led Palestinian Authority in the West Bank is still able to influence elections in various ways. This will make holding elections in their favor and prove their pillars better than postponing, This can be coordinated with regional and international powers. Especially with the Israeli occupation, which has a lot to do with the conduct of the electoral process in the West Bank in order to ensure the victory of Fatah and the defeat of its opponents. On the basis that the Israeli wants a Palestinian leadership that believes in the peace process and in partnership with it, It maintains continuous security coordination.

 

• Fatah still believes in its progress in the Palestinian arena. It also believes that no Arab regime in the region has lost elections that it did not want to lose, Process controls are available to those in power, They have money, decision-making, media, security and Arab and international support. This makes her not afraid of the elections and does not seek to postpone them.

 

• European estimates that have called for elections to renew legitimacy realize, And with it the Palestinian Authority, the Arab regime and the occupation, Fifteen years of siege of the Gaza Strip and restrictions on Hamas in Gaza and the West Bank, is enough to push the masses to disbelieve enthusiastically and with the current of resistance on the one hand, It is enough to exhaust Hamas and its constituency so that they cannot meet the requirements of winning legislative elections on the other hand. This goes in the direction of holding elections without fear.

 

The option of postponing elections without factional consensus, An option based in several ways:

 

• All the national agreements that have taken place in the last sixteen years, Since 2005, neither the PA nor the Fatah leadership has been committed to it. In other words, it does not give weight or consideration to the understandings of the factions or to the decrees that they see as the need to overturn.

 

• The parties affiliated with the PLO are mostly small in size and capabilities and cannot oppose Fatah or go against the grain. It is likely to be content with words of condemnation, Or perhaps justifying the need to postpone in order to pay the price for its position in support of the Fatah leadership from under the table, The prices are usually low as they have no other options.

 

• Lists of independents do not have broad audiences to defend their interests, Its opposition to the postponement will therefore have little effect. As well as the possibility of making some promises to them that the elections are coming soon and they have to wait.

 

• Hamas despite its great weight However, she fears that she will return to the square of political squabbling on the one hand, It has no counter-project or radical steps through which it can impose its will as evidenced by important actions carried out by Fatah before Hamas has been marginalized. Such as: The Palestinian National Council, the Central Council, local elections in the West Bank, and the gas agreement between the PA and Egypt were held, and Hamas reacts were limited and temporary. Thus, it is likely that the PA leadership and Fatah believe that postponing the elections does not need anyone’s approval.

 

• There are pretexts that the Fatah leadership and the PA can use to curb any voices opposing the postponement. Such as: The necessity of the participation of the people of Jerusalem in the elections. And that there is no way to hold elections in light of the gift of the people of Jerusalem, The PA leadership cannot wait for anyone to agree to postpone under these strategic circumstances.

Continue in the Palestinian elections to where?

The option of postponing elections by factional consensus, It also exists through the following justifications:

 

• Agreeing to postpone removes the embarrassment of Fatah and the PA leadership.

 

• The consensus gives the impression to the Palestinian street that the postponement is in a definite interest.

 

• The meeting of the factions that decided to go to elections, will be convened to discuss obstacles to holding elections on time, The decision to postpone will be discussed with him, This will encourage the factions to be more flexible because they hold the opportunity to make decisions about them.

 

• Small factions will see in the agreement to postpone a very suitable way out that saves face, It appears to the public that it discussed the justifications and reached a joint decision and was not ignored. Some lists of independents will go this doctrine.

 

• Some Hamas cadres began, Perhaps inspired by some leaders, She talks about an appropriate price that Hamas must pay in return for agreeing to postpone the elections. This proposal in itself carries the seeds of approval of the postponement in principle, It encourages the PA leadership and Fatah to raise the issue of postponement for many considerations that will be raised. Without fear and no hesitation.

 

• The policy of the new US administration led by Biden believes in diplomacy and quiet change, It will see it in the PA’s interest to reach an internal understanding that ensures that elections are postponed whenever necessary or activated whenever appropriate for the ruling party that believes in the peace process and coexistence with Israel. President Mahmoud Abbas has sought a role for Qatar in persuading Hamas not far from American influence.

The holding of elections is in the best interest of the Palestinians. ensures the stability of the internal condition, But there are fears among Fatah and its allies, Hamas also has if Fatah and the occupation manage to influence the elections in the West Bank. Sending some signals from Fatah that it wants to postpone the elections has lured Hamas into a somewhat tense position and insists on holding them despite what the occupation will do against its candidates and their voters in the West Bank.

It is possible to agree on a position on the Jerusalem elections. Any agreement by Hamas to overlook the elections in Jerusalem will be picked up by the opponent in his electoral campaign, even if he is involved with it in the same situation.

 

Postponing the elections without consensus is a behavior that Fatah has long been accustomed to. It fits with a transcendent mentality that sees itself as the same glories and the owner of the past, present and future, And no one is going against Fatah. But the advice of the Europeans, the Americans, the occupation state and some Arab countries will push them to a clean postponement of the elections, So that Fatah and the PA leadership will benefit from this tour, Therefore, Fatah and the PA will not offer a unilateral postponement.

 

Agreeing to postpone the elections is a quiet policy in line with the new American trends. Where it leads to absorbing opponents and venting reality instead of aggravation, It is a realistic vision that sees everything possible with little or a lot of effort. President Mahmoud Abbas will try to hear the opinion of the factions and feel the extent of the radical and principled positions in a meeting before the end of this month. He then consults his allies on the matter, If the price demanded by the factions and lists, And Hamas in particular, An affordable price that does not lift the blockade on Gaza, Hamas is not guaranteed to expand in the West Bank. It will be the perfect choice. Otherwise, going to the elections is the most likely option while providing maximum conditions conducive to Fatah’s victory..

 

In any case, The factions, Especially Hamas, which has the weighting factor between the three options, and without its agreement to postpone the elections, there will be no postponement.